Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Gaston Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second Serve Edge: Baena and Gaston have almost identical second serve success rates, with Baena slightly ahead at 44.89% compared to Gaston's 44.55% over the last six months. Does this minor difference favor Baena? Yes, slightly, as it shows a consistent edge in holding the second serve.
• Return Game Strengths: Baena has a clear advantage in returning second serves, winning 51.67% of these points, compared to Gaston's 46.82%. However, Gaston has a slight edge in first serve returns at 26.63% compared to Baena's 26.04%. Could this play a crucial role in this matchup? Likely, as return performance heavily influences the game's dynamics.
• Handling Pressure: Baena slightly outperforms Gaston in pressure situations, saving 57.84% of breakpoints compared to Gaston's 54.3%. Who is better under pressure? Baena demonstrates a marginal edge, essential for crucial moments in the match.
• Overall Performance: Over the past year, Baena has a higher match win rate at 50%, while Gaston stands at 37.25%. Does this indicate a form advantage? Yes, indicating Baena's greater consistency.
• Preferred Surface: Both players excel on clay, with Baena winning 62% of matches and Gaston 60%. Who has the upper hand on clay? Baena, slightly, based on historical performance.
• Main Tour Experience: Baena has a better record on the Main tour, winning 40% of matches compared to Gaston's 30%. Does this suggest an edge? Yes, it indicates Baena's higher level of experience and success at top-level competition.
• Head-to-Head History: Gaston has a slight edge in direct matchups, winning 2 out of 3 matches. Does past performance predict future outcomes? Often, as familiarity with an opponent's style can influence future matches.
• Extreme Pressure and Deciding Set Performance: Historically, Baena has performed better in deciding sets and tiebreaks against Gaston, winning 1 deciding set and 1 out of 3 tiebreaks. Is this crucial for long matches? Definitely, as it suggests resilience in tight situations.
• Opponent Quality: Gaston has, on average, faced higher-ranked opponents, meaning he's tested against tougher competition. Could this help him adapt better? Perhaps, as it builds experience.
• Break Point Conversion: Baena converts a slightly higher percentage of breakpoints at 34.45% versus Gaston's 32.24%, indicating a minor edge in capitalizing on key opportunities.

Editorial Prediction (August 7, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Baena and Gaston promises to be a competitive encounter, with both players having shown particular strengths on the clay surface. While Gaston has the edge in their head-to-head history, other factors may influence the result.

Baena's superior performance in serving under pressure and his slightly better breakpoint conversion rate could be critical, especially if the match reaches tense situations. Additionally, Baena's experience against top-tier opponents and his resilient performance under extreme pressure conditions give him a slight advantage.

Considering recent form and their performance on similar surfaces, Baena appears to possess a slight edge in this matchup. Baena's overall consistency and slight statistical advantages suggest he is more likely to emerge victorious in this contest against Gaston.